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Oxford Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health
Heart rate variability as an indicator of autonomic nervous system disturbance in tetanus
AbstractAutonomic nervous system dysfunction (ANSD) is a significant cause of mortality in tetanus. Currently diagnosis relies on non-specific clinical signs. Heart rate variability (HRV) may indicate underlying autonomic nervous system activity and represents a potentially valuable non-invasive tool for ANSD diagnosis in tetanus. HRV was measured from 3 5-minute ECG recordings during a 24-hour period in a cohort patients with severe tetanus, all receiving mechanical ventilation. HRV measurements from all subjects - 5 with ANSD (Ablett Grade 4) and 4 patients without ANSD (Ablett Grade 3) - showed HRV was lower than reported ranges for healthy individuals. Comparing different severities of tetanus, raw data for both time and frequency measurements of HRV were reduced in those with ANSD compared to those without. Differences were statistically significant in all except root mean square standard deviation RMSSD (p=0.07) indicating HRV may be a valuable tool in ANSD diagnosis.
New Tools and Nuanced Interventions to Accelerate Achievement of the 2030 Roadmap for Neglected Tropical Diseases
Abstract The World Health Organization roadmap for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) sets out ambitious targets for disease control and elimination by 2030, including 90% fewer people requiring interventions against NTDs and the elimination of at least 1 NTD in 100 countries. Mathematical models are an important tool for understanding NTD dynamics, optimizing interventions, assessing the efficacy of new tools, and estimating the economic costs associated with control programs. As NTD control shifts to increased country ownership and programs progress toward disease elimination, tailored models that better incorporate local context and can help to address questions that are important for decision-making at the national level are gaining importance. In this introduction to the supplement, New Tools and Nuanced Interventions to Accelerate Achievement of the 2030 Roadmap for Neglected Tropical Diseases, we discuss current challenges in generating more locally relevant models and summarize how the articles in this supplement present novel ways in which NTD modeling can help to accelerate achievement and sustainability of the 2030 targets.
Accelerating Progress Towards the 2030 Neglected Tropical Diseases Targets: How Can Quantitative Modeling Support Programmatic Decisions?
Abstract Over the past decade, considerable progress has been made in the control, elimination, and eradication of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Despite these advances, most NTD programs have recently experienced important setbacks; for example, NTD interventions were some of the most frequently and severely impacted by service disruptions due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Mathematical modeling can help inform selection of interventions to meet the targets set out in the NTD road map 2021–2030, and such studies should prioritize questions that are relevant for decision-makers, especially those designing, implementing, and evaluating national and subnational programs. In September 2022, the World Health Organization hosted a stakeholder meeting to identify such priority modeling questions across a range of NTDs and to consider how modeling could inform local decision making. Here, we summarize the outputs of the meeting, highlight common themes in the questions being asked, and discuss how quantitative modeling can support programmatic decisions that may accelerate progress towards the 2030 targets.
Temporal changes in SARS-CoV-2 clearance kinetics and the optimal design of antiviral pharmacodynamic studies: an individual patient data meta-analysis of a randomised, controlled, adaptive platform study (PLATCOV).
BackgroundEffective antiviral drugs prevent hospitalisation and death from COVID-19. Antiviral efficacy can be efficiently assessed in vivo by measuring rates of SARS-CoV-2 clearance estimated from serial viral genome densities quantitated in nasopharyngeal or oropharyngeal swab eluates. We conducted an individual patient data meta-analysis of unblinded arms in the PLATCOV platform trial to characterise changes in viral clearance kinetics and infer optimal design and interpretation of antiviral pharmacometric evaluations.MethodsSerial viral density data were analysed from symptomatic, previously healthy, adult patients (within 4 days of symptom onset) enrolled in a large multicentre, randomised, adaptive, pharmacodynamic, platform trial (PLATCOV) comparing antiviral interventions for SARS-CoV-2. Viral clearance rates over 1 week were estimated under a hierarchical Bayesian linear model with B-splines used to characterise temporal changes in enrolment viral densities and clearance rates. Bootstrap re-sampling was used to assess the optimal duration of follow-up for pharmacometric assessment, where optimal was defined as maximising the expected Z score when comparing effective antivirals with no treatment. PLATCOV is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT05041907.FindingsBetween Sept 29, 2021, and Oct 20, 2023, 1262 patients were randomly assigned in the PLATCOV trial. Unblinded data were available from 800 patients (who provided 16 818 oropharyngeal viral quantitative PCR [qPCR] measurements), of whom 504 (63%) were female. 783 (98%) patients had received at least one vaccine dose and 703 (88%) were fully vaccinated. SARS-CoV-2 viral clearance was biphasic (bi-exponential). The first phase (α) was accelerated by effective interventions. For all the effective interventions studied, maximum discriminative power (maximum expected Z score) was obtained when evaluating serial data from the first 5 days after enrolment. Over the 2-year period studied, median viral clearance half-lives estimated over 7 days shortened from 16·6 h (IQR 15·3 to 18·2) in September, 2021, to 9·2 h (8·0 to 10·6) in October, 2023, in patients receiving no antiviral drugs, equivalent to a relative reduction of 44% (95% credible interval [CrI] 19 to 64). A parallel reduction in viral clearance half-lives over time was observed in patients receiving antiviral drugs. For example, in the 158 patients assigned to ritonavir-boosted nirmatrelvir (3380 qPCR measurements), the median viral clearance half-life reduced from 6·4 h (IQR 5·7 to 7·3) in June, 2022, to 4·8 h (4·2 to 5·5) in October, 2023, a relative reduction of 26% (95% CrI -4 to 42).InterpretationSARS-CoV-2 viral clearance kinetics in symptomatic, vaccinated individuals accelerated substantially over 2 years of the pandemic, necessitating a change to how new SARS-CoV-2 antivirals are compared (ie, shortening the period of pharmacodynamic assessment). As of writing (October, 2023), antiviral efficacy in COVID-19 can be efficiently assessed in vivo using serial qPCRs from duplicate oropharyngeal swab eluates taken daily for 5 days after drug administration.FundingWellcome Trust.
Specific plasma microRNAs are associated with CD4+ T-cell recovery during suppressive antiretroviral therapy for HIV-1.
ObjectiveThis study investigated the association of plasma microRNAs before and during antiretroviral therapy (ART) with poor CD4+ T-cell recovery during the first year of ART.DesignMicroRNAs were retrospectively measured in stored plasma samples from people with HIV (PWH) in sub-Saharan Africa who were enrolled in a longitudinal multicountry cohort and who had plasma viral-load less than 50 copies/ml after 12 months of ART.MethodsFirst, the levels of 179 microRNAs were screened in a subset of participants from the lowest and highest tertiles of CD4+ T-cell recovery (ΔCD4) (N = 12 each). Next, 11 discordant microRNAs, were validated in 113 participants (lowest tertile ΔCD4: n = 61, highest tertile ΔCD4: n = 52). For discordant microRNAs in the validation, a pathway analysis was conducted. Lastly, we compared microRNA levels of PWH to HIV-negative controls.ResultsPoor CD4+ T-cell recovery was associated with higher levels of hsa-miR-199a-3p and hsa-miR-200c-3p before ART, and of hsa-miR-17-5p and hsa-miR-501-3p during ART. Signaling by VEGF and MET, and RNA polymerase II transcription pathways were identified as possible targets of hsa-miR-199a-3p, hsa-200c-3p, and hsa-miR-17-5p. Compared with HIV-negative controls, we observed lower hsa-miR-326, hsa-miR-497-5p, and hsa-miR-501-3p levels before and during ART in all PWH, and higher hsa-miR-199a-3p and hsa-miR-200c-3p levels before ART in all PWH, and during ART in PWH with poor CD4+ T-cell recovery only.ConclusionThese findings add to the understanding of pathways involved in persistent HIV-induced immune dysregulation during suppressive ART.
Exploring the pediatric nasopharyngeal bacterial microbiota with culture-based MALDI-TOF mass spectrometry and targeted metagenomic sequencing.
UNLABELLED: The nasopharynx is an important reservoir of disease-associated and antimicrobial-resistant bacterial species. This proof-of-concept study assessed the utility of a combined culture, matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization-time of flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS), and targeted metagenomic sequencing workflow for the study of the pediatric nasopharyngeal bacterial microbiota. Nasopharyngeal swabs and clinical metadata were collected from Cambodian children during a hospital outpatient visit and then biweekly for 12 weeks. Swabs were cultured on chocolate and blood-gentamicin agar, and all colony morphotypes were identified by MALDI-TOF MS. Metagenomic sequencing was done on a scrape of all colonies from a chocolate agar culture and processed using the mSWEEP pipeline. One hundred one children were enrolled, yielding 620 swabs. MALDI-TOF MS identified 106 bacterial species/40 genera: 20 species accounted for 88.5% (2,190/2,474) of isolates. Colonization by Moraxella catarrhalis (92.1% of children on ≥1 swab), Haemophilus influenzae (87.1%), and Streptococcus pneumoniae (83.2%) was particularly common. In S. pneumoniae-colonized children, a median of two serotypes [inter-quartile range (IQR) 1-2, range 1-4] was detected. For the 21 bacterial species included in the mSWEEP database and identifiable by MALDI-TOF, detection by culture + MALDI-TOF MS and culture + mSWEEP was highly concordant with a median species-level agreement of 96.9% (IQR 86.8%-98.8%). mSWEEP revealed highly dynamic lineage-level colonization patterns for S. pneumoniae which were quite different to those for S. aureus. A combined culture, MALDI-TOF MS, targeted metagenomic sequencing approach for the exploration of the young child nasopharyngeal microbiome was technically feasible, and each component yielded complementary data. IMPORTANCE: The human upper respiratory tract is an important source of disease-causing and antibiotic-resistant bacteria. However, understanding the interactions and stability of these bacterial populations is technically challenging. We used a combination of approaches to determine colonization patterns over a 3-month period in 101 Cambodian children. The combined approach was feasible to implement, and each component gave complementary data to enable a better understanding of the complex patterns of bacterial colonization.
Spatio-temporal spread of artemisinin resistance in Southeast Asia
Current malaria elimination targets must withstand a colossal challenge–resistance to the current gold standard antimalarial drug, namely artemisinin derivatives. If artemisinin resistance significantly expands to Africa or India, cases and malaria-related deaths are set to increase substantially. Spatial information on the changing levels of artemisinin resistance in Southeast Asia is therefore critical for health organisations to prioritise malaria control measures, but available data on artemisinin resistance are sparse. We use a comprehensive database from the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network on the prevalence of non-synonymous mutations in the Kelch 13 (K13) gene, which are known to be associated with artemisinin resistance, and a Bayesian geostatistical model to produce spatio-temporal predictions of artemisinin resistance. Our maps of estimated prevalence show an expansion of the K13 mutation across the Greater Mekong Subregion from 2000 to 2022. Moreover, the period between 2010 and 2015 demonstrated the most spatial change across the region. Our model and maps provide important insights into the spatial and temporal trends of artemisinin resistance in a way that is not possible using data alone, thereby enabling improved spatial decision support systems on an unprecedented fine-scale spatial resolution. By predicting for the first time spatio-temporal patterns and extents of artemisinin resistance at the subcontinent level, this study provides critical information for supporting malaria elimination goals in Southeast Asia.
The Hidden Hand of Asymptomatic Infection Hinders Control of Neglected Tropical Diseases: A Modeling Analysis
Abstract Background Neglected tropical diseases are responsible for considerable morbidity and mortality in low-income populations. International efforts have reduced their global burden, but transmission is persistent and case-finding-based interventions rarely target asymptomatic individuals. Methods We develop a generic mathematical modeling framework for analyzing the dynamics of visceral leishmaniasis in the Indian sub-continent (VL), gambiense sleeping sickness (gHAT), and Chagas disease and use it to assess the possible contribution of asymptomatics who later develop disease (pre-symptomatics) and those who do not (non-symptomatics) to the maintenance of infection. Plausible interventions, including active screening, vector control, and reduced time to detection, are simulated for the three diseases. Results We found that the high asymptomatic contribution to transmission for Chagas and gHAT and the apparently high basic reproductive number of VL may undermine long-term control. However, the ability to treat some asymptomatics for Chagas and gHAT should make them more controllable, albeit over relatively long time periods due to the slow dynamics of these diseases. For VL, the toxicity of available therapeutics means the asymptomatic population cannot currently be treated, but combining treatment of symptomatics and vector control could yield a quick reduction in transmission. Conclusions Despite the uncertainty in natural history, it appears there is already a relatively good toolbox of interventions to eliminate gHAT, and it is likely that Chagas will need improvements to diagnostics and their use to better target pre-symptomatics. The situation for VL is less clear, and model predictions could be improved by additional empirical data. However, interventions may have to improve to successfully eliminate this disease.
Mapping the incidence rate of typhoid fever in sub-Saharan Africa.
BackgroundWith more than 1.2 million illnesses and 29,000 deaths in sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, typhoid fever continues to be a major public health problem. Effective control of the disease would benefit from an understanding of the subnational geospatial distribution of the disease incidence.MethodWe collated records of the incidence rate of typhoid fever confirmed by culture of blood in Africa from 2000 to 2022. We estimated the typhoid incidence rate for sub-Saharan Africa on 20 km × 20 km grids by exploring the association with geospatial covariates representing access to improved water and sanitation, health conditions of the population, and environmental conditions.ResultsWe identified six published articles and one pre-print representing incidence rate estimates in 22 sites in 2000-2022. Estimated incidence rates showed geospatial variation at sub-national, national, and regional levels. The incidence rate was high in Western and Eastern African subregions followed by Southern and Middle African subregions. By age, the incidence rate was highest among 5-14 yo followed by 2-4 yo, > 14 yo, and 0-1 yo. When aggregated across all age classes and grids that comprise each country, predicted incidence rates ranged from 43.7 (95% confidence interval: 0.6 to 591.2) in Zimbabwe to 2,957.8 (95% CI: 20.8 to 4,245.2) in South Sudan per 100,000 person-years. Sub-national heterogeneity was evident with the coefficient of variation at the 20 km × 20 km grid-level ranging from 0.7 to 3.3 and was generally lower in high-incidence countries and widely varying in low-incidence countries.ConclusionOur study provides estimates of 20 km × 20 km incidence rate of typhoid fever across sub-Saharan Africa based on data collected from 2000 through 2020. Increased understanding of the subnational geospatial variation of typhoid fever in Africa may inform more effective intervention programs by better targeting resources to heterogeneously disturbed disease risk.
Antibiotic prescribing practices of medical doctors in a resource-limited setting and the influence of individual perceptions and stewardship support: a survey in three tertiary hospitals in Vietnam.
ObjectivesTo understand antibiotic prescribing and influencing factors to inform antimicrobial stewardship (AMS) interventions to reduce unwanted consequences of antibiotic use in hospitals in Vietnam, a lower-middle-income country in Asia.MethodsWe conducted a cross-sectional study of doctors at three tertiary hospitals using non-probability convenience sampling, through a paper-based (Hospitals 1 and 2) or electronic (Hospital 3) survey. Questions included items on perceptions regarding antibiotic resistance and AMS, prescribing practices, knowledge, demographics and training. We used principal components analysis and mixed-effects models to examine practices and identify influencing factors.ResultsAmong 314 surveyed participants, 61%, 57% and 59% in Hospitals 1, 2 and 3, respectively, felt certain about the appropriateness of their antibiotic prescriptions. In total, 9% reported sometimes prescribing antibiotics when not needed to meet patients' expectations, and 13% reported doing so to avoid perceived complications. Higher prescribing confidence was found among those with positive perceptions about AMS (P P ConclusionsThis study provides important implications for design of hospital interventions to address influencing factors on antibiotic prescribing in Vietnam and similar resource-limited settings. Specific interventions should target improving knowledge through education and training for doctors, enhancing the support from the AMS team, and promoting guidelines and policies for appropriate antibiotic use in hospital.